After decades of isolation under military
rule, Myanmar is opening to foreign investment and
forms of democracy for the first time in a
generation. The reform process, however, is now
being attended by unanticipated consequences and
influences, both internally and from abroad, that
could undermine the country's new trend towards
openness.
Recent sectarian fighting
between Muslims and Buddhists in Myanmar's western
Rakhine State has caught the attention of militant
Islamists in South and Southeast Asia. Since May,
the amount of jihadi propaganda directed towards
Myanmar, a country previously unknown in the world
of jihadi antagonists, has surged as perhaps
thousands of Muslim Rohingyas have been forced to
flee the country.
Tensions between the
ethnic Rohingya and Rakhine populations
in Rakhine State were
mostly kept under wraps under Myanmar's previous
ruling military junta. Violence erupted on May 28
after an ethnic Rakhine woman was raped and
murdered allegedly by three Rohingyas in Rakhine
State, and the government was unprepared for the
inter-ethnic violence that soon transpired.
A cycle of violence between the two groups
has since resulted in widespread arson attacks and
hundreds of murders. Perhaps thousands of the
800,000 Rohingyas living in Rakhine State have
recently fled to Bangladesh, which many Myanmar
citizens claim is the Rohingyas' true homeland.
The violence occurs at a time of growing
regional instability in the pivot area where South
and Southeast Asia meet, namely the areas along
the Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India's Assamese
borders. At the same that Muslim Rohingyas and
Buddhist Rakhines clashed in Myanmar, fighting
erupted between Muslims and Hindus in India's
Assam State.
Since mid-July, more than 30
people have been killed and 150,000 displaced in
Assam as riots devolved into open conflict between
indigenous tribes such as the Bodos and Muslim
settlers in the state's Kokrajhar and Chirang
districts. As in Myanmar where the Rohingyas are
considered illegal Bangladeshi settlers, the
Muslims targeted in Assam are accused of being
ethnic Bengalis from Bangladesh.
Bangladesh has the highest population
density of any country and is
woefully ill-equipped to deal with an influx of
refugees from Myanmar and India. Bangladesh is
home to a population of 160 million people in a
country the size of the US State of Iowa, which in
contrast has a population of only three million
people.
Bangladesh also has its own
homegrown problems with Muslim extremist groups,
including the Hizb ut-Tahrir, which authorities
banned in 2009. The head of the Indian Mujahideen
(IM), Yasin Bhatkal, is believed to be hiding in
Dhaka and Chittagong, Bangladesh's two largest
cities, allegedly with the help of Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency.
The Bangladesh government now runs the
risk of being perceived by militant Islamists as
selling out fellow Muslims, a sentiment expressed
in a recent surge of jihadi propaganda condemning
it for not doing enough to help the inrush of
refugee Rohingyas.
As is often the case
with jihadi statements, the videos and essays
propagated by militant Islamists about recent
events in Myanmar are more rhetoric than
substance. Playing up the victimhood narrative,
they apparently hope to incite the global Muslim
community, or
ummah, and win new recruits
to their wider cause against enemy "infidel"
governments and countries.
While secular
Bangladesh has been a target of Islamists for
years, Myanmar is apparently a new member of the
"infidel" club of countries that propagandists
threaten in response to its treatment of the
Rohingyas. Given the Myanmar military's ongoing
challenges of trying to pacify internal
insurgencies, including a major unresolved
conflict in northern Kachin State, it is likely
unprepared to raise its counter-terrorism
capabilities to prevent a possible retributive
plot against the country.
The most recent
militant statement to target Myanmar came from
Lebanon's Hezbollah, which on July 23 said in an
official statement:
"The regime-owned killing machine
relentlessly works on striking Muslims in
different regions, with Rohingya at the
forefront...This is a new racial purification
trend against Muslims."
On July 20,
the Taliban released a more vitriolic statement
saying:
The Muslims of [Myanmar] have been
facing such oppression and savagery for the past
two months never previously witnessed in the
history of mankind.
Mercilessly burning
children, women and men like toasting sheep on
fire is not only against every known law but
something no man with any conscious can ever
accept but unfortunately the Muslims of
[Myanmar] are targets of such a gross crime. Not
only that, but they are also being expelled from
their lands, forcefully ejected from their
homes, their wealth is being usurped and their
honor looted while the whole world turns a blind
eye to their plight.
The Islamic Emirate
of Afghanistan, besides considering this crime a
black scar on the history of mankind, calls on
the government of [Myanmar] to immediately put a
stop to this savagery and barbarism and halt
such heart rending historical violations against
humans and humanity. They should realize that
this is not only a crime against the Muslims of
[Myanmar] but against all humankind and
especially an unforgivable crime against the
entire Muslim world…[1]
On July 16,
The Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF), the
European propaganda arm in support of al Qadea and
other radical Islamic organizations, issued a
recent question and answer essay called "The
Genocide against the Muslims in [Myanmar]" on the
jihadist website al Fidaa:
Why did this genocide begin? The
Buddhist Rakhine killers placed the dead body
[of the raped and killed Rakhine woman] near a
Muslim village without any knowledge of the
murder. The Buddhist Rakhine and Burmese
(Myanmar) authority accused Muslims of killing
the woman. As a result, three innocent Muslim
youths were arrested. One was beaten to death,
and the other two were sentenced to death by the
court. The government has shown the world that
they created a fake issue to instigate a real
event against Muslims.
How did this
genocide start and what happened afterwards? On
June 3, 2012, eight Muslim pilgrims along with
one escort, one bus helper, and one woman were
killed by a Rakhine mob in Taungup township in
southern Arakan [Rakhine] State. Five others
escaped the massacre…The gang of Rakhine
terrorists stopped the bus, which had the
license plate 7 (Ga) 7868, at an immigration
gate, and called, "Come down all, if there are
any foreigners," while holding lethal
weapons…Then, they started to beat the Muslim
pilgrims and dragged them from the bus to the
road, where an organized gang of more than 300
Rakhine terrorists beat the Muslims until they
died. The gang had been standing at the
immigration gate, but no authorities came out to
stop the massacre. [2]
These messages
and interpretations of events are starting to
cause regional ripple effects. On July 13, 300
members of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) and
Jemaah Anshorut Tauhid (JAT) in Indonesia
threatened to storm the Myanmar embassy in
Jakarta. One protest leader said over a
loudspeaker: "If embassy officials refuse to talk
with us, I demand all of you break into the
building and turn it upside down … Allahu Akbar …
Every drop of blood that is shed from a Muslim
must be paid back. Nothing is free in this world …
FPI is ready to wage jihad … Go to Myanmar and
carry out jihad for your Muslim brothers."
On July 6, the al-Faruq Foundation for
Media Production released an Arabic-language video
called "Solidarity With Our Muslim Brothers in
Arakan (The Tragedy of [Myanmar])" on the Ansar
al-Mujahideen Forum. The propaganda film includes
a historical narrative focusing on Muslim
victimhood played over images of brutalized
Rohingyas, although some of the images appear not
to have come from the recent violence. The video's
narrative includes a passage that says:
They steal the money of the Muslims
and they steal their crops and they prohibit the
Muslims from communicating with people from
other countries. They also prevent the marriages
of Muslims and they put a lot of obstacles in
the way of Muslim marriages. This is not all as
there is a lot of injustice that you can't even
imagine and all forms of torture. So where are
the defenders of the human rights in the 20th
century and where the people who fight for
freedom and democracy. This awful silence
indicates the acceptance and supporting of this
because it is Muslim blood that is being shed
and since it is a Muslim blood, then the blood
is cheap like the blood of Muslims of 'Arakan',
Palestine, Kashmir and Chechnya and everywhere
else.
These and other statements have
put the Rohingyas' plight on the radar of many
Islamist militant groups. While their propaganda
is directed at militants from all regions, some of
the groups who have issued statements on Myanmar
are clearly trying to recruit disenfranchised
Rohingyas to their radical causes.
They
have a potential galvanizing figure. One ethnic
Rohingya, Abu Zar al-Burmi, is believed to be the
mufti, or religious scholar, for the Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan based in the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border region. Without roots
in any nation, as Rohingyas are not allowed
citizenship in Myanmar or Bangladesh, al-Burmi has
promoted the creation of a global Muslim community
which exists without respect to international
borders.
The growing inter-religious
fighting and spillover humanitarian crises in
Rakhine and Assam States is exerting new pressures
on Bangladesh, Myanmar, and India. As the violence
spirals and governments fail to restore order and
dispense of justice for crimes committed, the
situation could quickly become a new regional, if
not international, security dilemma.
For
their part, Islamist militants have shown they are
prepared to exploit the plight of the Rohingyas
for their own radical purposes, while neither
Myanmar nor Bangladesh have demonstrated they are
able to manage the crisis at a local or national
level. Should the crisis escalate and become an
effective recruiting tool for transnational
Islamist militant groups, the international
community will one way or another eventually be
dragged into the mire.